CT Election Watch

It is beginning to look like the Connecticut For Lieberman party is going to pick up a seat in the Senate, but there are three other big races worth watching in the Nutmeg State.

Congressional Quarterly (CQPolitics.com) ranks CT-04 in the ‘No Clear Favorite’ category and both CT-02 and CT-05 in the ‘Leans Republican’ category which represents seats in Republican hands that are the least safe.

It is also interesting to note that all three seats made the DCCC’s list of “first wave” seats that are going to recieve the highest funding and priority for the final stretch of the campaign. (http://www.dccc.org/red2blue/) Also, on Wednesday (Oct. 18th) the DCCC announced spending in some top tier races, this included $322,000 for CT-02, $210,00 in CT-04, and another $322,000 in CT-05.

CT-02

An August 29th RT Strategies poll put this one at 51-45 for Courtney (D), although a Zogby Poll in early October put it at 41-44 Simmons (R).  Considering in 2004 Simmons won by 8 points, it is clear that his seat is in danger.  The NRCC knows that this is an important race that they haven’t lost just yet and it ranks in the top 10 targets of NRCC spending, with $1.47 Million poured into it since September 1st.

CT-04

Christopher Shays is possibly the most visible Connecticut Republican (assuming Lieberman doesn’t leave another party this year) but his seat is the most likely to be lost of the three. Early October polling shows Democrat Diane Farrell up by 5 points, and Shays’ 2004 win was by a narrow 4 points.

CT-05

Democrat Chris Murphy is still trailing Incumbent Nancy Johnson by 6 points as of October 10th.  It is looking like this seat may end up staying in Republican hands, although Johnson is likely to become the lone Republican in Connecticut’s congressional delegation.

(Polls: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2006/Info/hothouse.html#CT)

All in all, it looks like Republicans feel somewhat safe in CT-05, and Democrats feel somewhat safe in CT-04, and most of the spending from the NRCC is going into CT-02.  It’s interesting to note that the DCCC spent the same amount in CT-02 and 05 so it would appear they haven’t given up in either yet.  The next two weeks are going to have both sides doing intense internal polling on these close races so it’ll be interesting to see if the money keeps coming or if it drys up as parties are forced to concede losses and focus their efforts on races they have a shot at really winning.