CT Election Watch

While the National Republic Party has publicly said they would stay out of the Connecticut Senate race, Lieberman continues to have money roll in from Republican faithful. Also, many prominent Republicans, including the President and Vice President, have continued to praise Lieberman in stump speeches around the country. The Republicans are pretty well unified behind a candidate in this race, and it’s a Democrat.

This is somewhat surprising, as we aren’t speaking of a Zell Miller Democrat, because if one excludes foreign policy issues, Joe Lieberman has one of the most liberal track records in the United States Senate. Republicans across the country are campaigning for a man who will vote against most of their proposed legislation.

Lieberman currently leads over Lamont and Schlesinger in potential Republican voters; 70% say they will vote for the incumbent Senator. Now, while Schlesinger is not the best candidate, especially in a time where Republican corruption is splattered all across the newspaper, one must wonder, why put all your support behind someone who disagrees with your party on a majority of issues, and completely isolate someone who would bolster your party’s presence in the Senate?

The only way this can be explained is the ubiquitous “Lesser of Two Evils” theory. Exclude Lieberman from the race for a moment, Lamont would more than likely crush Schlesinger in a one-on-one race. Lamont has much more money, is more energizing, and has not been kicked out of numerous casinos in the Northeastern United States. Throw Lieberman back in the race, and you have an interesting situation. First off, Lieberman is portrayed as a moderate, which is appealing to many unaffiliated (and in this case, Republican) voters. Second, Lieberman is an incumbent, so he can argue he has the experience and the track record to represent the state. As shown in a Quinnipiac poll this week, that is playing a huge role in this race, as nearly half of the likely voters surveyed doubted whether Lamont had the experience to be a Senator. Now, Republicans then have the choice between an inexperienced party pawn with skeletons in his closet, a new outspoken anti-Iraq candidate, who lambastes the President any chance he gets, or a known Democrat who is right-leaning on foreign policy and defense issues. Every Republicans agrees they do not want the middle option, so who out of the the remaining two has the best shot?: Lieberman.

There is really no way the Republicans of Connecticut can win this one, literally and metaphorically.

(Source: Quinnipiac University, 20 OCT 2006)

It is beginning to look like the Connecticut For Lieberman party is going to pick up a seat in the Senate, but there are three other big races worth watching in the Nutmeg State.

Congressional Quarterly (CQPolitics.com) ranks CT-04 in the ‘No Clear Favorite’ category and both CT-02 and CT-05 in the ‘Leans Republican’ category which represents seats in Republican hands that are the least safe.

It is also interesting to note that all three seats made the DCCC’s list of “first wave” seats that are going to recieve the highest funding and priority for the final stretch of the campaign. (http://www.dccc.org/red2blue/) Also, on Wednesday (Oct. 18th) the DCCC announced spending in some top tier races, this included $322,000 for CT-02, $210,00 in CT-04, and another $322,000 in CT-05.

CT-02

An August 29th RT Strategies poll put this one at 51-45 for Courtney (D), although a Zogby Poll in early October put it at 41-44 Simmons (R).  Considering in 2004 Simmons won by 8 points, it is clear that his seat is in danger.  The NRCC knows that this is an important race that they haven’t lost just yet and it ranks in the top 10 targets of NRCC spending, with $1.47 Million poured into it since September 1st.

CT-04

Christopher Shays is possibly the most visible Connecticut Republican (assuming Lieberman doesn’t leave another party this year) but his seat is the most likely to be lost of the three. Early October polling shows Democrat Diane Farrell up by 5 points, and Shays’ 2004 win was by a narrow 4 points.

CT-05

Democrat Chris Murphy is still trailing Incumbent Nancy Johnson by 6 points as of October 10th.  It is looking like this seat may end up staying in Republican hands, although Johnson is likely to become the lone Republican in Connecticut’s congressional delegation.

(Polls: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2006/Info/hothouse.html#CT)

All in all, it looks like Republicans feel somewhat safe in CT-05, and Democrats feel somewhat safe in CT-04, and most of the spending from the NRCC is going into CT-02.  It’s interesting to note that the DCCC spent the same amount in CT-02 and 05 so it would appear they haven’t given up in either yet.  The next two weeks are going to have both sides doing intense internal polling on these close races so it’ll be interesting to see if the money keeps coming or if it drys up as parties are forced to concede losses and focus their efforts on races they have a shot at really winning.

In the article Lieberman Mum on How He’ll Vote for Gov. Lieberman’s inability to make a decisive stance out of fear of losing popularity is once again pointed out. When asked who he would support for Governor (Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell or Democratic New Haven Mayor John DeStefano) Lieberman insisted his position is to remain “private”. And this comment is pointed out after DeStefano said that he would support Liberman’s Democratic opponent Ned Lamont due to his “energy and commitment”. After losing the primaries and running again as an independent, Lieberman acknowledges that he is putting the Democrats in an awkward position, and because of that, he wants to stay ot of their races. And when asked whether or not he believed the House would be better off being in the majority of the Democrats, Lieberman said ” I haven’t thought about that enough to give that an answer”.

This shows how clueless Lieberman is, and the rest of the politicians for that matter, who would respond to such a pertinent and relevant question with a dumbfounded answer. Are we losing touch of the final goal? Wouldn’t one think that whether or not the outcome of such a race would be something far more important than the road there? It seems as if the means is greater than the end. And this goes deeper than this ignorant politician- it reaches out to each individual who lives their life without regard to what the goal is, but rather how much material, popularity and power they can collect on the way. This goes into another issue in itself… to be discussed at a later date.

Lieberman seems to be stuck in a weird political stance at this point, as if everyone around him is pointing at him as he tries to slip into office. And his tactic is just to stand still and pretend that no one can see him- hopefully everyone will just disregard asking involved questions if he just refuses to take a stance on anything. Because after all, its much less scary when everyone passes you off because of your passive demeanor and picks you in the end because everyone else is too controversial. Oh, the political tactics are oozing in this race.

Second district incumbent Rob Simmons (R) recently drew upon former NYC mayor Rudolph Giuliani to energize his base in a tight re-election bid.  Giuliani spoke mainly on security, surrounded by emergency response workers, American flags, and roughly 250 supporters earlier this week.

The speech sought to draw upon the feelings of patriotism and unity brought out in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in 2001.  Simmons and Giuliani spoke of their experiences on that day, and sought to convey just how crucial security is in the 21st century.

One must wonder how much longer September 11th will be invoked for political gain.  This constant politicizing of the terrorist attacks will only serve to demean the importance of that day in the eyes of the electorate, and soon it will only be seen as a political strategy utilized in the dredges of a campaign.  Clearly, the technique polls well, or it would not be utilized, which serves only to further discourage my faith in the electorate.

The lessons learned from 9/11 need to be implemented into public policy, but the mere mention of the worst ever attack on our homeland should not tip an election.  While we must never forget, nor undermine the events of that day, in terms of electing criteria, we must move on, or we risk repeating the mistakes that perpetuated the death of over 3,000 of our countrymen.

(Source: Hartford Courant 12 OCT)

Incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman has widened his gap over challenger Ned Lamont to ten points according to a recent Rasmussen poll. The previous Rasmussen poll, released 19 September, showed Lieberman with only a two point lead over his challenger, but after a mere three weeks later, Lieberman has really begun to pull away. There are many possible reasons for this, but two of the most prevalent are: (1) The current situation with North Korea and (2) The ubiquitous Foley scandal.

With North Korea reportedly conducting a successful nuclear weapons test, many moderate Connecticut voters may feel the need to elect someone with a strong track record on defense and foreign policy. Lamont is a foreign policy novice, and has been portrayed as nothing short of a pacifist, and with such a serious situation in North Korea, the electorate may be reluctant to take a chance.

In regards to the Foley scandal, Lieberman has a reputation of being a moral official. When the Clinton scandal broke, Lieberman was one of the most outspoken critics of the President, which is exactly why he was tapped as Al Gore’s running mate in 2000. While the Foley scandal should have no impact on a Senate race between (ultimately) two Democrats, whenever the airwaves are saturated with a story, it changes the public’s perspective, and therefore how they view the situation around them. Again, Lamont is a practical unknown, so if the Foley scandal has been able to affect a Senate race, it can only give a bolster to Lieberman.

To combat Lieberman’s recent jump in the polls, Lamont has poured $1,250,000 of private funds into the race.